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A quiz

 
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ecabaner
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:34 am    Post subject: A quiz Reply with quote

Why did I lose 223003613898; the winner put 310 and I put here 315?
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juangrande



Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 886
Location: San Diego, California, USA

PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

According to the bidding history, the winning bid of GBP 310 was placed at 8:19:56AM PDT, 25 minutes and 13 seconds before the auction closed at 8:45:09AM PDT. That means you would have had to bid at least GBP 320 in order for eBay to accept your bid since the UK bid increment at that level is GBP 10.

Since you bid only GBP 315, your bid was rejected by eBay and GBP 310 remained the winning bid. The status Gixen reported for your bid should be BID UNDER ASKING PRICE.
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If you don't know where you are going, you will wind up somewhere else.
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Cupid



Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 5668
Location: Bristol, UK

PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is an interesting case, because the eventual winner ended up having the best strategy even though it is pretty much what we always advise people NOT to do.

They bid incrementally what Ebay told them was the minimum amount they could bid from 270 to 300, then presumably once more to take the lead in the bidding, taking the price to 310... which then blocked the OPs bid of 315 due to the bid increment rule.

Had that eventual winner placed a single bid of 301, they would have been winning the auction at the point that the OPs bid was to be placed by Gixen, but at a lower price, and hence might well have lost the item, because the Gixen bid would have then been accepted since it was greater than 311. But we know that bidder was prepared to pay at least 310 for it, since that is what they ended up winning it for.

That winner will never know how lucky they were though, because they now think that no one else was prepared to pay more than 300 for it, and once they get to know better how Ebay works they may even start to think they could have got that item for almost 10 dollars less... but they would be wrong...

Well, I find it interesting anyway...
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juangrande



Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 886
Location: San Diego, California, USA

PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, this is an interesting auction. It also provides a perfect example of why sniping is almost always a better strategy than bidding early.

Had 1***h(51) made his bid of GBP 300.00 seconds before the auction closed instead of 5 days before the auction closed, then they would have won because w***r(3) would have thought they were winning after outbidding 9***l(140) at GBP 270.00 and the bid of GBP 300.00 made by 1***h(51) would have won.

This is a perfect illustration of the purpose of sniping: It prevents anyone from probing your bid by not allowing other bidders time to make another bid. Moreover, this is a case where a shorter offset (say, 3 or 4 seconds) might be a better choice since it would make it harder for a 1-click bidder to outbid you.

On the other hand, if you're competing against other snipers, a longer offset is advantageous since the earlier bid wins when the amounts are the same.

Based on the data collected from Gixen, Mario claims that an offset of 8 seconds is the best choice (in a statistical sense, that is).
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If you don't know where you are going, you will wind up somewhere else.
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