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don't try to solve a np-hard problem

 
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whoha1
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:14 am    Post subject: don't try to solve a np-hard problem Reply with quote

Ok, a new way to think this problem is to assume all users bid in the smartest way. However not likely, if you ask whether an user is willing to get the item for just $10 more than the expectation or the item will be simply gone, the answer is most likely yes. And they do it the same way all the time.

It's best to let them be happy with their greedy maximum price not being outbid, then give them no time to fix the greedy. People are just more greedy than smart, including me sometimes.

For example:
First impression: "$600 for headphones are you crazy!?" Then I manually sniped for $650, and then I constantly regret that I didn't win it for more.

If the outbid happened 6 seconds earlier, the higher bidder would either have to pay more, or say goodbye to the item, there was really not the third option could happen. I know I'm neither unique or super stupid.

Even for now, I will not set my expectation to $700 for the headphones unless I see someone else willing to pay that much. If the value of the item is proven that way, which is the best way, my exception will be quickly adjusted.

Or it's the instinct of competition making us want to outbid the opponents at all cost and feel good about it, or feel angry for the outbid. I don't know. Again, people don't often act like computer with algorithms --- they act in a much more complicated and arbitrary way.

There's also huge price deviation for auctions. You may have set your bottom-line but sometimes you suddenly feel tired when you're so close to the bid. So many reasons.

So sneak, and snipe.
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Whoha1
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My point is that 3 second snipe is necessary.

One can never assume the bidder give up (or hesitate) all the time precisely after their current expected price is met.
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Cupid



Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 5668
Location: Bristol, UK

PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 3:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Certainly individuals have differing levels of intelligence and emotion.

However, to assume that any particular auction dictates the value of an item is a sure fire way to pay more than is necessary... as you say yourself items achieve variable prices... if you rely on winning one auction you can thus easily pay twice as much as is necessary to purchase exactly the same item via Buy It Now, or a different auction.

Also assuming that everyone else you are competing with for a purchase is stupid, is not an ideal recipe for success... if you are able to figure out that using a free service like Gixen to hide you true intentions on the bidding amount until the last few seconds.. so are many others... and if they choose to bid the same as you, that way, they are more likely to win with an earlier, not a later snipe.

Sure there are a tiny minority of humans that never learn from their experiences... but the vast majority do, and adapt their behaviour accordingly... it is what differentiates us from many other species.

I feel more upset when I overpay for an auction, that is real money wasted, it still happens occasionally... than I ever do about loosing one to someone willing to pay too much for it... and I know this because I've, most often, done the necessary research... I have lost no money and, perhaps 1 in 1000 lost auctions, I've even gained a little more knowledge.
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Rickajho
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I view sniping with gixen as a smart way to win auctions, not as a tool for vicarious impulse bidding.

But that's just me.

And a 3 second snipe option is available - if you are paying for the mirror service.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2017 6:42 am    Post subject: Re: don't try to solve a np-hard problem Reply with quote

whoha1 wrote:
Ok, a new way to think this problem

I don't see that there's much of a problem with the existing system. You want to avoid a bidding ware where everybody bids more than they were originally prepared to. A pretty foolproof strategy with eBay "proxy bidding" is to bid the maximum you are prepared to pay a few seconds (I use 6-8", and can reliably snipe manually) before the auction ends. This doesn't give a competitor time to see the bid, change their mind and increase their maximum, and rebid. And you can't get outbid by a shorter-time sniper unless it's prepared to pay more than you were anyway. The time is a tradeoff between being long enough for others to react, and so short that Internet delays may make it fail.

Another plus of sniping: given time, a dishonest seller can find your maximum bid by outbidding you with a fake seller, withdrawing the fake bid, and entering a new fake bid that forces your bid to maximum.
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