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[quote="darkzero"]Ok, I thought about this and this is the advantage I can see: If inboulder's system can fetch the highest bidder's price very late in the auction and then bid some percentage or fixed amount above it in time, it will help some people, namely people who are too wealthy, stupid, lazy or immature to figure out the maximum possible they want to pay and are willing to pay some percentage or fixed amount above the highest bidder, irrespective of what that is. This assumes that ebay is efficient at determining price/value in auctions and that the final price is relatively close to the highest bidder's maximum price. If you have a maximum price that you'll pay then this scheme is irrelevant.[/quote]
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<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="100%" class="forumline"> <tr> <th class="thCornerL" width="22%" height="26">Author</th> <th class="thCornerR">Message</th> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row1"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>darkzero</b></span></td> <td class="row1" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Fri Nov 29, 2013 12:32 am<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: </span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody"></span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>inboulder wrote:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="quote">It's foolish to think that one can determine the maximum they'd pay for an item based on the ebay increment amount which can be less than 1% of an items cost. e.g., oh, I'd be willing to pay $1000 but not $1001, this is a ludicrous idea, as no such pricing precision exists.</td> </tr></table><span class="postbody"> <br /> <br />What you're talking about is "Sorites Paradox" and it's not foolish to think you can get over it. You just need a simple plan like thinking of the maximum possible price you'll pay, then adding an amount, like 10% which you might call the "regret factor" which cuts both ways, as it happens. <br /> <br />Of course if you look at things in hindsight straight after you lose then you'll always say that you would have paid more, but a less emotional analysis will reveal maximum prices and regret factors. <br /> <br />Of course, as I said in my last post, some people are too wealthy, lazy, stupid or immature to think about things carefully and will let their emotions take over. That's why we have retarded outcomes like people bidding prices on items in auctions that are readily available for less in BIN listings or just at retail elsewhere on the internet or in stores.</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row2"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>darkzero</b></span></td> <td class="row2" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Fri Nov 29, 2013 12:20 am<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: </span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">Ok, I thought about this and this is the advantage I can see: <br /> <br />If inboulder's system can fetch the highest bidder's price very late in the auction and then bid some percentage or fixed amount above it in time, it will help some people, namely people who are too wealthy, stupid, lazy or immature to figure out the maximum possible they want to pay and are willing to pay some percentage or fixed amount above the highest bidder, irrespective of what that is. <br /> <br />This assumes that ebay is efficient at determining price/value in auctions and that the final price is relatively close to the highest bidder's maximum price. <br /> <br />If you have a maximum price that you'll pay then this scheme is irrelevant.</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row1"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>Cupid</b></span></td> <td class="row1" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2013 5:29 pm<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: </span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">inboulder, <br /> <br />Your argument is not making much sense to me, I'm afraid. <br /> <br />One aspect I can comprehend though... There is a huge difference between having 5 seconds and 5 hours to react to a bid... if I have 5 hours I can do a great deal more research on an item and decide whether it really is worth bidding more... in 5 seconds all I can do is react as I have already decided I am going to do. <br /> <br />Another aspect that you are ignoring is that you must have an amount above which you are not willing to pay for an item... using Gixen all you have to do is determine that amount and set it as a snipe amount... your script doesn't help you to do that, it simply obscures the fact that your maximum is higher than the amount you would like to pay.</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row2"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>inboulder</b></span></td> <td class="row2" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2013 3:36 pm<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: </span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody"></span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>Newbie12345 wrote:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="quote">Or you could just bid your max amount with gixen and you would have also won for the same amount as what you did with your own script.</td> </tr></table><span class="postbody"> <br /> <br /> <br />No, I may have been outbid by an amount I would have been willing to pay (I'm trying to maximize my economic gain after all) had I not used my script right in the last few seconds. It's foolish to think that one can determine the maximum they'd pay for an item based on the ebay increment amount which can be less than 1% of an items cost. e.g., oh, I'd be willing to pay $1000 but not $1001, this is a ludicrous idea, as no such pricing precision exists. If I merely enter a bid for the absolute maximum value I'm willing to pay where my utility is equal the the price, at the point where there is no consumer profit to me, there is no point in using an auction at all. I'm trying to maximize my consumer profit. <br /> <br />Also, if bids can be entered (and they can), many times in the last few seconds, the information hiding based on a 5 second snipe (this is the main value of a snipe after all) is essentially nullified. <br /> <br />Think about it this way, what if instead of gixen bidding in the last 5 seconds, it could only enter a bid with exactly 5 hours left, would this be better or worse?</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row1"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>Cupid</b></span></td> <td class="row1" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2013 3:13 am<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: </span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">I think we are all agreed that sniping provides an advantage over people that react to a higher bid being placed and the price rising... it has no advantage over buyers that are already committed to a price that they are willing to pay and back that up with action. <br /> <br />So lets suppose that there are better outcomes by bidding later... that means that there are people out there sitting at their computers waiting for a higher bid ready to put another bid in if one happens in the last few seconds... now put yourself in the position of that person sitting there waiting... I think you must agree that they have already decided that they are willing to pay more than the amount they have bid already or have scheduled via some sniping software... which contradicts the assumption that we made that they not people that are already committed to a price that they are willing to pay and back that up with action, over which we acknowledge there is no advantage to sniping. <br /> <br />So as I have said before, if those people exist, then they are wasting their time and will surely realise, quite soon, that they are better off either scheduling their maximum bid with some sniping software or placing their bid manually and letting the Ebay proxy bidding system work for them. <br /> <br />I have also expressed an opinion that there is a small advantage, in price terms, to placing multiple bids, especially when they are less than a bid increment apart... This is because under those circumstances it is more likely to win an auction by less than a bid increment hence saving that portion of a bid increment remaining (when the actual maximum bid is even higher than that)... However, that price advantage is slim and the amount of computing resources involved in doing it is very substantial. <br /> <br />Specifically for the algorithm mentioned earlier, as implemented with a script, just imagine how much extra computing power you need to scale that up to thousands of users... factor in that sniping services are not permitted to use the Ebay API as it is reported this was implemented using... and I would wish anyone the best of luck trying to base a service on it.</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row2"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>mario</b></span></td> <td class="row2" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2013 1:52 am<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: </span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody"></span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>inboulder wrote:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="quote">In 4 trials the script has won the auction and overbid the second highest bidder (who bid in last 5 sec) by one increment, and difference b/t win vs 2nd place high bids are within 3% of the total price. <br /></td> </tr></table><span class="postbody"> <br /> <br />I will not discuss if it's doable, only if it makes sense. I still see no benefit, as Gixen does not work by incrementally bidding on ebay. It submits user's maximum bid to ebay, and then ebay proxy takes over to determine the amount needed to win.</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row1"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>Newbie12345</b></span></td> <td class="row1" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2013 1:27 am<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: </span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">Or you could just bid your max amount with gixen and you would have also won for the same amount as what you did with your own script.</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row2"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>inboulder</b></span></td> <td class="row2" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 10:23 pm<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: </span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody"></span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>mario wrote:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="quote">There is no benefit in using smaller snipe offsets. Those bids that outsniped you were pre-scheduled, not a reaction to your snipe. You would have lost either way.</td> </tr></table><span class="postbody"> <br /> <br />I don't think that's always true. I noticed this issue too, so instead of using gixen I signed up as a dev and using ebay API wrote a script to bid up to four times within the last second. It reports bids at less than ~20ms roundtrip making this quite doable. The script increases the increment each time a specified amount to attempt overcome the last minute high bidder. In 4 trials the script has won the auction and overbid the second highest bidder (who bid in last 5 sec) by one increment, and difference b/t win vs 2nd place high bids are within 3% of the total price. <br /> <br />This script strat has paid off, I think gixen is just behind now, maybe I'll setup a service?</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row1"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>darkzero</b></span></td> <td class="row1" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 1:17 am<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: </span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">You should write in big flashing letters somewhere prominent: <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight: bold">THERE IS ONLY ONE WAY TO WIN AN EBAY AUCTION AND THAT IS TO BID THE HIGHEST PRICE.</span> <br /> <br />Sniping doesn't win auctions for you, it merely depresses prices.</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row2"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>Cupid</b></span></td> <td class="row2" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 5:39 pm<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: </span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">Yes, once again, I agree with Mario. <br /> <br />In my opinion/experience the only way to combat later higher bids is to schedule higher value snipes yourself (most important) ... even earlier (not later) than you are doing now to gain the advantage of the bid increment rule when there are high manual bidders (not so important).</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row1"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>mario</b></span></td> <td class="row1" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 5:23 pm<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: </span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">There is no benefit in using smaller snipe offsets. Those bids that outsniped you were pre-scheduled, not a reaction to your snipe. You would have lost either way.</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row2"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>outsniped</b></span></td> <td class="row2" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 4:56 pm<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: outsniped</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">I've been getting consistently outsniped when using gixen lately. <br />Bids are coming in one 'bid increment' above mine at the last second of the auction and winning, this has happened consistently. <br />Gixen bids 5 seconds before the end of the auction, and without fail, I'll get sniped on the last second of the auction. <br /> <br />My question is, what bid software are people using now, it appears there is something out there more fined tuned and superior to gixen?</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> </table>
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